Do you see Joe Biden going soft on US approach to China and its immigration policies with respect to H1-B visas?

Again that is hard to say at this point of time but I am doubtful if Biden’s stance would be too different from that of Trump, although he may be less aggressive and combative in his approach. Let me talk about the trajectory of Sino-US relations. While the approach will be more sober, I don’t think the basic grain will change There will still be curbs on Chinese imports, ban on technology stocks and curbs on Chinese companies with state ownership.

Here is a simple test for you to apply. If you notice, Trump has made strong remarks about China but Democrats are silent. With Trump getting 70 million votes, Biden realizes that he is still popular. Biden would be conscious of the risks of an absolute reversal in America’s China policy. Trump became popular because of his anti-China stand and Biden would have that at the back of his mind. He may be more subtle, but the stance will be the same.

Let me now turn to the immigration and important H1-B visa issue. Biden has already hinted that he will maintain a tough visa policy and that the US will continue to allow foreign visas only for highly skilled labour. Trump opened a Pandora’s Box by putting American jobs for Americans first. That struck a chord with Americans and Biden just cannot take the risk of reversing that policy. Tight immigration is most likely to continue under Biden too.

There is a more political consideration for Donald Trump here. Trump has tightened the immigration rules and got the international flak for it. Biden will only find it easier and also convenient to just retain the status quo. That is the reason most IT companies don’t foresee any change in immigration policy. Most IT companies are reconciled to this new reality and have worked out Plan-B. The moral of the story is don’t be too enthusiastic about change.