InvestorQ : Do you see the Russia Ukraine war impacting the Fed decision to hike rates?
Dilmini Mercia made post

Do you see the Russia Ukraine war impacting the Fed decision to hike rates?

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Dawn Cherian answered.
2 months ago
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In a way yes, because Ukraine does pose a question mark. Price of crude has already rallied over 80% in 3 months to $130/bbl. In the US, the gasoline prices at $4.25/gallon are at an all-time high. The current situation specifically underlines the fear that too much monetary tightness may hamper the consumption impetus in the US economy. It could also negatively impact the nascent economy recovery. No less a person than Powell has acknowledge this.

So what will the Fed do? With inflation at 7.9%, Fed will not wait much longer. Instead of hiking 50 bps in March, the Fed may settle for just 25 bps. That will signal to the market that the Fed is keen on reining in inflation back to 2% level. The other thing the Fed may do is to limit the number of rate hikes in 2022 from 7 hikes to just 5 hikes. For now, the target rate hike are not being changed but a worsening situation in Ukraine could spoil the Fed plan.

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