Hi Diksha, what in your view are the major weekly triggers for the market in the coming week starting on 11th April 2022?

The following are some of the major stock market triggers for the coming week.

· During the week, the Nifty jumped 114 bps to the 17,784 levels. The week began with the HDFC Euphoria, but that is now back to wait and watch till the deal is approved at multiple levels. Other banks did move. The real action, with the volatility levels going down was seen in the small-cap and mid-cap stocks that gained over 3.5% this week.

· This is a shortened trading week due to trading holidays on Thursday and Friday and so the options expiry will happen on Wednesday, compressing time frames further. The sharp fall in VIX to 17 levels is a signal of buy on dips but the global VIX on the CBOE is still above 21, indicating that India's VIX could do an about-turn at any time.

· It is Q4 results season and it begins with TCS on 11th April and will be followed up by Infosys on 13th April. Then there is HDFC Bank and ICICI Pru results over the weekend. Some mid-caps like Delta, Anand Rathi Wealth, Hathway, Tinplate, Alok, and Den Networks will also announce their results in the week.

· Big macro data this week will be Mar-22 CPI inflation on Tuesday, 12-April, which is expected to again stay above 6%, questioning the RBI monetary stance in the policy. On the growth front, Feb-22 IIP will also be announced on Tuesday with markets looking for signals of recovery in IIP and perceptible growth over FY20 on a cumulative basis.

· Amid rising casualties in Ukraine, oil and FPI flows are critical. The oil basket fell below $100/bbl and focus will shift to China COVID cases and IEA 60 million barrels release. On FPI flows, FPIs sold Rs.6,337 crore in equities during the week, but fears of a Russian bond default could increase this number sharply. Put-call hints at a broader range.

· Key data points from US markets include US inflation, crude oil stocks, retail sales, initial jobless claims, MBA mortgages, and March IIP numbers. Key data points from the rest of the world include the EU ECB rate decision; Japan PPI, machinery orders; China inflation, housing prices, and unemployment.