How do you see the fourth quarter results for the Indian corporates overall for the Mar-22 quarter?

Here is what can be broadly expected from the last quarter of FY22 ended March 2022.

a) The Mar-22 quarter was marked by global volatility in the light of Russia attacking Ukraine and the impact on global supply chains and on oil prices. That will reflect on the input costs and the performance and margins in Mar-22 quarter.

b) Needless to say, the surge in global commodity prices will keep pressure on most of the sectors like FMCG, auto, chemicals, capital goods etc. However, a lot will now depend on how the financial sector comprising of banks and the non-banking financial companies perform. IT could also hold the key, but here cost pressures may be telling.

c) On a yoy, the net profits are likely to grow at the average rate of 32%, driven by strong performance by banks, which is likely to see the fastest NII (net interest income) growth in the last eight quarters.

d) There are several likely reasons why financials would do well in the Mar-22 quarter. These include factors like the continued easing in credit cost, RBI refusal to buy the hawkish story and more importantly a sharp improvement in loan growth.

e) It was expected that the Omicron impact would have a deep impact on the asset quality of banks but the wave was very short lived and did not have any impact. Also, the war situation has not hit banks in any way, only made banking more lucrative.