InvestorQ : How is the monsoon expected this month and how will it impact the Kharif output?
vaishnavi mhatre made post

How is the monsoon expected this month and how will it impact the Kharif output?

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vidhya Laxmi answered.
4 months ago
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With the monsoon season about to end, it is time to take stock of how the monsoon has been and the likely impact on the Kharif cropping this season. The southwest monsoon will enter the last phase of its journey over India in next few days. It is true that while the onset of monsoons was on time, the subsequent progress was slow and erratic. The erratic rains has had e negative impact on the Kharif sowing and also the reservoir levels.

If you look at the data released by the government till the previous week, the sowing area at around 106 million hectares is about 1.75% lower than last year. Also, if you look at the monsoons versus the long period average or LPA, then also the monsoons hints of below normal rainfall in the full year. While the late rains may bring about some change in the overall monsoon shortfall, it is unlikely to change the loss of output due to late sowing.

The bigger concern will be the likely impact on the Rabi crop or the winter crop as it is better known as. The weak rainfall is likely to impact the water levels in the 130 plus reservoirs that are used as a benchmark. Other than Southern India, the water levels in all reservoirs have dropped sharply compared to last year. This could actually hurt the Rabi sowing season, which is likely to start from later October onwards.

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