How true is it that Bangladesh could cross India in per capita GDP very soon?

This has been mentioned in the latest IMF World Economic report. The report projects that Bangladesh could surpass India in per capital GDP by end of 2020. IMF has gone on to add that this could sustain over a longer period of time.

India has already suffered from low GDP per capita due to high population levels. In 2020 the pandemic is likely to result in the GDP per capital for India dropping from $2100 to $1880, a huge loss in terms of purchasing power. Bangladesh is estimated to go from $1820 to $1880.

While the recovery is expected post the pandemic and would favour India, IMF has predicted that Bangladesh would match India’s per capita GDP in 2024 at $2540 and by the year 2025, Bangladesh at $2760 would surpass India’s per capita GDP.

The government has tried to seek umbrage in the fact that India’s per capital GDP in PPP terms is still 20% higher than Bangladesh, but that argument may not hold much water. One area the government is correct is that this is also due to rupee weakness as GDP has grown in last 6 years in rupee terms.