How were the inflation and IIP numbers in India for the last month?

Let me talk about inflation first. For December 2021, inflation came in 68 bps higher at 5.59%. This was largely due to Food inflation rising sharply to 4.05%. While headline inflation remains below the 6% outer limit prescribed by the RBI, this is the 27th month that inflation has remained above the preferred average of 4%.The higher inflation could induce RBI to evaluate rate hikes in February and April policies as US evaluates 4 rate hikes in 2022.

Now for the industrial growth. The IIP for November 2021 came in lower at 1.4% compared to 4% in Oct-21. There is a distinct loss of momentum in November as is evident from the sequential data. IIP is normally announced with a lag of one month. In fact, the 8-month cumulative IIP has just fallen below the FY20 pre-COVID levels. What is more critical is that the actual IIP at 1.4% is sharply lower than the Reuters estimates of IIP at 3%.