Is it true that exports have again performed badly in the month of October 2020?

The actual trade data is put out by the Ministry of Commerce only around the 15 of each month for the previous month. Of late, the government has started the practice of giving a quick update on the trade numbers, at least the headline numbers.

According to the government trade volume data for October 2020, India’s merchandise exports consisting of physical goods fell 5.4% at $24.82 billion largely due to fall in shipments of petroleum, gems & jewellery and leather. This was already expected.

If one looks at the cumulative Apr-Oct period, then the total exports stood at $150.07 billion which is effectively a fall of 19.1% over the previous year period. During the October 2020 month, imports also fell by 11.56% in the month of October to $33.6 billion. This is largely due to lower crude imports, but other imports are surely picking up.

As a consequence, the merchandise trade deficit for the month of October 2020 stood $8.78 billion, sharply higher than the deficit seen in the last few months. In fact, India had also moved to a surplus on trade briefly. The impact on the current account deficit would largely predicate on the surplus that services generate. For first 6 months, CAS was in surplus.