What are some of the major trading and investment triggers for the week commencing on 27 January 2020 and how to trade this market?

We can summarize the major triggers for the coming week as under.

· Indian markets will react favourably to Brent Crude below $61/bbl caused by a combination of US supply at 20 million bpd and the China virus issue

· Private Banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak and ICICI could react a sharp rise in BB quality loan portfolio and impact on overall gross NPAs

· Higher taxable slabs and lower rates in Union Budget 2020 could be positive for consumption and banking stocks during the week

· Fiscal deficit outlook in the Budget 2020 under 3.8% will be seen as positive for banks and other rate sensitive sectors

· F&O expiry on Thursday could see buying and long rollover in budget beneficiary stocks in the consumption space

· Big Q3 results this week across include heavyweights like HDFC, SBI, Bharti, Bajaj Auto, Maruti, HUL and Tech Mahindra among others

· Positive update on Chinese corona virus will be the key as weak demand due to the pandemic is now a real threat

· Hints on the budget treatment of income tax, LTCG tax and DDT will be big triggers as markets are betting on rationalization

· There are expectations on the AGR resolution front and any concession for Bharti and Vodafone Idea will be welcomed by telcos this week

· In the economic survey ahead of the budget watch for growth and inflation outlook setting the stance of the Budget 2020

· VIX shot up sharply during the week and VIX above 15 levels could add to expiry volatility if the market is weak

· Expect muted Asian reaction due to New Year holidays in China and Australia Day celebrations during the week

· Keep an eye on the US Fed meet on 28-29 Jan. While rate cuts are ruled out, focus for Indian markets will be on the language and outlook

· BREXIT now looks certain on Jan-31 with withdrawal agreement signed on 24 Jan. Expect BREXIT reaction also on Budget Day

Of course, the Union Budget 2020 will be the prince of all triggers for the market this week.