There were few surprises from the Fed on the rates and the liquidity but the picture on the growth and the jobs front remains quite grim. In the June meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held Fed rates in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, which has anyways not left much room for manoeuvre. But the real worry is on the macros front. The Fed has projected that the US economy will see 6.5% contraction in GDP in 2020. This would also be accompanied by 9.3% unemployment, which could imply a huge surge in jobless claims. Fed discussions have emphasised that the public health crisis could have a more serious impact on the economy over the next 2 years. The liquidity situation is likely to remain robust with the Fed committing to sustain its bond purchase program at the current enhanced level of $80 billion per month in treasury and $40 billion in agency and mortgage backed securities. Indian markets will be happy as the liquidity boost will ensure that markets remain liquid and emerging market assets continue to be in demand. Also the dovish rates scenario will help the RBI to cut rates further if required.
There were few surprises from the Fed on the rates and the liquidity but the picture on the growth and the jobs front remains quite grim. In the June meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held Fed rates in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, which has anyways not left much room for manoeuvre. But the real worry is on the macros front. The Fed has projected that the US economy will see 6.5% contraction in GDP in 2020. This would also be accompanied by 9.3% unemployment, which could imply a huge surge in jobless claims. Fed discussions have emphasised that the public health crisis could have a more serious impact on the economy over the next 2 years. The liquidity situation is likely to remain robust with the Fed committing to sustain its bond purchase program at the current enhanced level of $80 billion per month in treasury and $40 billion in agency and mortgage backed securities. Indian markets will be happy as the liquidity boost will ensure that markets remain liquid and emerging market assets continue to be in demand. Also the dovish rates scenario will help the RBI to cut rates further if required.