InvestorQ : What are the major stock market cues that you see for the coming week starting on 14th November 2022?
Arusha Ray made post

What are the major stock market cues that you see for the coming week starting on 14th November 2022?

diksha shah answered.
2 weeks ago

Here are some of the major stock market triggers that you need to watch out for in the coming week.

a) For the previous, the Nifty was up by +1.28% on the back of lower US inflation. The large cap stocks gained from a mix of short covering and buying at lower levels. However, alpha buying was missing in the week as the mid-cap index was down -1.03% for the week and small cap was also down -0.52%. Clearly, the triggers have not percolated.

b) The results season for Q2FY23 will conclude in the coming week on Tuesday. Only 2 Nifty companies viz. Grasim and ONGC are to announce their results next week with the rest having completed their results announcement. Overall, out of the 1,700 plus companies that have announced their quarterly numbers, the net sales were higher by 23.8% on a yoy basis while the net profits are flat yoy due to higher OPEX and interest expenses.

c) There are 2 major IPOs closing this week while one IPO will open and also close during the week. The IPOs of Kaynes Technology Ltd will close on 14th November while the IPO of Inox Green Energy Services will close on 15th November. The IPO of Keystone Realty Ltd (Rustomjee) will open for subscription on 14th Nov while it will close on 16th Nov.

d) It will be the week of two big India inflation numbers. After US inflation fell last week to 7.7%, the India CPI inflation is expected to see a sharp fall from 7.41% to 6.75% as per Bloomberg estimates. These estimates are also pegging that the WPI inflation would taper by over 200 bps to around 8.3% for the month of October 2022. That is the first reliable indicator that the RBI policy hawkishness is paying proper dividends.

e) The India trade data will be put out on Tuesday, 15th November and the trade deficit is expected to be wider than the $25.71 billion deficit recorded for the month of September. This could put some pressure on the rupee, which had sharply appreciated in the previous week from Rs83/$ to Rs80.50/$ on the back of positive FPI flows and stronger Chinese Yuan. The macro story is intact, but trade could play spoilsport.

f) The FPI flows did not sustain the momentum of the first few days, but the net infusion is still well over $2 billion into India. Next week could see some decisive flows into India with lower than expected US inflation helped by lower expected inflation in India. FPIs have, of late turned more risk-on as is evident from the flows into various EMs.

g) In terms of Nifty outlook, a broad range of 18,150 one the downside and 18,600 levels on the upside can be expected. ON the positive side, with the VIX at below 15 levels, the market may continue to be a buy on dips market structurally. That would ensure that even in a worst case scenario, the Nifty may not dip seriously below 18,000 mark.

h) Major US markets related data points in the coming week include FOMC member speak, inflation outlook, Redbook, PPI, retail sales, crude stocks, building permits, jobless claims. For the rest of the world, key data points include Euro Zone GDP, Trade, CPI; Japan GDP Trade Balance; China IIP, Joblessness; UK BOE MPC speak, retail sales, inflation.