What are the major triggers and cues for the stock markets in the week commencing on July 05, 2020?

The week commencing on 05 July is likely to be marked by a slew of data flows as well as the all important results of TCS. Here are some of the major cues for the coming week.

· Coronavirus cases are rising exponentially and daily cases crossed 20,000 on an average. There are fears that the lockdown may now be extended beyond July 31.

· With Nifty scaling 40% from the lows of March 23, some amount of caution is expected to set into banks and market leaders like Reliance Industries.

· There are positive cues from the timely and intense rains. The monsoon journey till July hints at record Kharif output in 2020 and food inflation in control.

· Tractor stocks could be in the limelight in the coming days as tractor sales have growth in June at the cost of car sales and positive monsoon will boost tractors.

· COVID Vaccine efforts have been progressing rapidly. After ICMR and Bharat Biotech took the lead, expect positive tidings for the Indian pharma space.

· TCS numbers are scheduled on July 09^th and the company could take a 5% hit on revenues and cross currency headwinds could put pressure on the stock.

· Big news this week was the sharp rise in rupee by 95 paisa and with a 200 bps bounce from the lows of April, FPI flows into debt could turn sharply into positive.

· FIIs sold Rs.5333 crore in the week but were net buyers in June. Risk on approach was clear after FPIs turned net buyers for the first time in the year 2020.

· IIP for May is expected on 10th of May. After the 55% fall in April, any bounce in the month of May will be a welcome shift for the economy.

· HDFC Life and SBI Life will enter Nifty in place of Zee and Vedanta, which could boost ETF buying and generate interest in life insurance stocks.

· US PMI, vehicle sales, jobless claims, EU retail sales, Japan current account and China inflation will be the key global data points for the week