InvestorQ : What are the major weekly cues to watch out for in the stock markets for the week starting on 12th September?
Riya Dwivedi made post

What are the major weekly cues to watch out for in the stock markets for the week starting on 12th September?

diksha shah answered.
3 weeks ago

Here are the major triggers to watch out for in the coming week.

· In terms of major index movements, the Nifty closed with 1.68% gains, buoyed by falling oil prices. There was buying visible in IT and cement stocks. Among other indices, the Mid-cap index gained 2.1% for the week while the small cap index was up 3.3%. Clearly, most of the traders appear to be chasing smaller stocks for alpha.

· The coming week will be a week of important macro data flows. Firstly, the CPI inflation will be out on Monday as will be the IIP data. The retail inflation is expected to have bounced back to 7% in August after touching 6.71% in July. At the same time, the IIP is expected to have fallen sharply to the 4.5% levels from a high of 12% on base effect.

· In other domestic data flows, the WPI inflation is expected to taper closer to 13% as against 13.93% in July as energy prices tapered further. At the same time, the trade data will also be out on Thursday. While preliminary data suggests that the trade deficit will be lower at $28.62 billion, the risk of CAD at above 5% of GDP is still real.

· One cannot overlook the US data flows. US inflation data will be announced on Tuesday 13th September and it is expected to have tapered from 8.5% in July to 8.1% in August. At the same time, markets will be focused on the Fed cues ahead of the FOMC meet scheduled on 20-21 Sept, wherein a hike of 75 bps appears to be on the cards.

· Brent Crude fell to as low as $88/bbl on recession concerns but OPEC may announce a sharp interim supply cut, although impact on price would be limited. At the same time, the USDINR is likely to hover around 79.6/$ to 80/$. FPI flows have been positive in the latter half of the week, although it was largely driven by a surge block deals.

· The coming week will also be the IPO markets in the coming week. The first is the listing of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, which is likely to list on Thursday. GMP has fallen sharply. In addition, the IPO of Harsha Engineers in the price band of Rs314-330 opens on Wednesday for a period of 3 working days. The issue size is Rs755 crore.

· As the Nifty is likely to be in the range of 17,000 to 18,000, here are other major global cues. Key US cues include Inflation, API crude stocks, retail sales, jobless claims, IIP, PPI and MBA mortgage applications. For ROW markets, triggers will be EU IIP, inflation, trade balance ; Japan machine tool orders, PPI, IIP; China PBOC speak, HPI, retail sales.