What are the trading cues and signals for the week starting on Monday 11th October?

Here are some major cues for the week starting on 11th October that will have a bearing on the markets overall.

a) Sensex closes above 60,000 with the Nifty just 100 point short of 18,000 landmark. For now the debt ceiling likely to be relaxed in the US and monetary policy in the US and in India are to remain tepid. Put call concentration hints at Nifty in 17,500-18,000 range.

b) There are two infrastructure related triggers next week. Prime Minister Modi will roll out National Infrastructure Masterplan as action document for infrastructure. The bigger challenge will be the coal shortage and power situation with reserves sharply down.

c) Crude oil will remain the X-factor for Indian markets since crude above $83/bbl and petrol above Rs.110 per litre, remains a huge inflation risk. Bond yields at 6.32% and INR at 75/$ could pressure flows.

d) The IPO of Birla Sun Life AMC lists on Monday with GMP trading at 5% premium over issue price after the 5x oversubscription. After TCS good Q2 numbers, pipeline this week is Infosys, Mindtree, Wipro, HCL Tech, Cyient, HDFC Bank, D-Mart, HFCL and Delta Corp.

e) CPI Inflation data on 12th October expected to taper below 5% for September, giving a big relief for the RBI monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, IIP growth for Aug-21 to hold above 11% with focus likely to be on manufacturing IIP.

f) Key US data points focus on Redbook, JOLTs, CPI, FOMC Minutes, API Crude stock, PPI, Jobless claims, Retail sales, Crude imports. Other data points include EU IIP, CPI; UK GDP, IIP, Trade Balance; Japan machine orders, PPI, bond buying; China Trade, CPI.