InvestorQ : What are your key stock market triggers for the trading commencing on 01 February?
manisha Kolvenkar made post

What are your key stock market triggers for the trading commencing on 01 February?

Crowny Pinto answered.
1 year ago

As India goes into a critical week with the Union Budget, here are some key triggers and watch points for the week starting on 01 February.

· Big focus of the Budget 2021 will be on revenues and outlays. The government has to make big infrastructure outlays and yet bridge the gap in revenues. The budget is also expected to give a personal consumption boost which will be market accretive.

· Sensex faced pressure at 50,000 levels and that will be the level to breach post budget if the market has to go higher. During the week, a lot will depend on the VIX which is at around 25.4 levels. For stable markets, VIX needs to taper back to 20 levels.

· FPIs sold over Rs.12,100 crore of equities in the last week of Jan-20 on fears of COVID returning and budget uncertainty. Markets could be worried as this is the first time in last few months that FPIs have sold so aggressively in equities.

· Markets are likely to react to negative core sector growth. However, the upgrade of Sep-20 core sector to positive figure will help markets. Meanwhile, an important high frequency data point will be solid auto numbers.

· Focus this will be on liquidity and on quarterly results. Markets will hope for continued financial accommodation from RBI on 05 Feb. Also, focus will be on 470 company results including, HDFC, Bharti, HPCL, Hero, SBI, Britannia, M&M, Divi, Dixon, Tata Power etc.

· Options data hints at a range of 13,200 to 14,000 for the Nifty but the 8% correction in the last week could be an overhang. Last week, the markets closed below the lower end of the range and supports will be more crucial than resistances in this market.

· Major Asian data points include Japan PMI, Japan Household spending, China PMI manufacturing and PMI services. Western Market triggers will include US PMI, ISM, vehicle sales, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, EU PMI and retail sales.


1 year ago
The outlook and trend for Indian markets remain unchanged from the last week. It continues to remain in a
territory where short positions may be considered as risk-reward continues to favor shorts. The momentum also
continues to rise; indicating a materially higher probability of a sudden change in the trend. The short term (weekly)
and midterm (Monthly) trend and outlook for Nifty are firmly negative indicating an adverse risk-reward ratio. The
near term (daily) outlook and trend for Nifty is neutral.

For this week-

• The day traders may avoid trading in the 13635-14010 nifty range. The long positions may be held with a stop loss
of 13567.
• For Bank Nifty also short and midterm trends are negative, while near term trend is neutral. Day Trading may
be avoided in the 30115 - 30470 range. For all long positions maintain a strict stop loss of 29985.