What could be the major trading and investment cues for the trading week commencing on 30 January 2020?

As Indian markets enter a crucial week, the key triggers for the market in the coming week could be as under.

· US Coronavirus pandemic has crossed 1.25 lakhs and casualties more than 2500. DJIA had crashed on Friday and this downtrend could hit Indian market sentiments

· India could have a migrant labour problem creating an exodus risks which could escalate the COVID-19 numbers in India

· Oil prices will be key even as OPEC admits to 20% compression in crude oil demand. Idle refining capacity is negative for extractors and refiners globally

· Rate sensitives like banks, NBFCs and realty could benefit from the 75 bps rate even as EMI rescheduling could be credit negative

· FII selling has tapered during the week, but if the US slows then risk-off could again come to the fore in April 2020. Rupee strength could be critical for markets

· Markets expect government to announce fiscal this week with a slew of tax cuts and exemptions to neutralize lockdown

· Banking stocks have accumulated shorts and the liquidity boost of $50 billion could lead to a surge in short covering in banking stocks

· Core sector numbers expected to see negative growth and could impact sentiments. Auto shutdowns may be visible on March auto numbers

· Most important indicator could be the VIX, where cooling will be a deciding factor. VIX has tapered from 86 to 70 but it is still too high to warrant markets bottoming out