What in your view are the major triggers for the stock markets in the coming week starting on 04th July 2022?

Here are some of the key triggers for the stock markets in the coming week starting on Monday 04th July 2022.

· For the week, there were gains across indices, Nifty closed with gains of 0.33%, the Mid-cap index with gains of 0.56% for the week and small cap index with gains of 1.04% in the week. Large cap indices were pulled down by oil, but the massive index level selling appears to have abated in the week and that is the good news.

· The big focus this week will be on the oil and gas stocks. Last week, they came under pressure after the sharp fall in oil prices and the windfall tax imposed on the upstream oil companies by the government. In addition, the higher import tax on gold is also likely to have a negative impact on the jewellery related companies.

· The first quarter of Q1FY23 earnings season will kick off in this week with the results of TCS and Avenue Supermarts being announced on Friday. TCS, and the IT sector overall, will see pressure on the margins during the quarter. Another big focus this week will be the minutes of the FOMC meet as it explains the rationale for the 75 bps hike in June.

· There are 3 key momentum triggers for the market in terms of flows. Firstly, crude is lower at $108/bbl, which is a positive for the markets overall However, the USDINR has weakened to the 79-80 range and looks poised to breach the 80/$ range shortly. That is likely to impact FPI flows, which already saw Rs50,203 crore outflows in June 2022.

· With PMI manufacturing losing momentum and touching a 9-month low below 54, the focus will turn to PMI services to be announced on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the HDFC group is likely to be in focus this week with the NSE and BSE approving the merger deal. Meanwhile, the F&O OI accumulation hints at a range of 15,300 to 16,300 on Nifty and low VIX around 21 levels shows possibility of Nifty bouncing from lower levels.

· In global cues, major US cues include Factory Orders, FOMC minutes, vehicle sales, PMI, crude stocks, jobless claims, employment, payrolls. Major non-US cues include EU PPI, PMI, Retail sales; Japan PMI, household spending; China PMI, PPI, Inflation and vehicle sales. Of course, among all these cues, FOMC minutes will hold the key.