What in your view are the major triggers for the stock markets in the coming week starting on 14th March?

Here are some of the key triggers for the stock markets in the coming week starting on 14-March, Monday.

· After the 2.37% Nifty rise during the week, the coming week will test the follow-up buying after short covering. The worsening situation in Russia will be the overhang of the renewing bombing of the Ukrainian capital by Russia and the geopolitical risk. Also, the progress on oil sanctions and the role of Japan and EU will be observed.

· Brent and FPI flows continue to be critical in the coming week. Brent corrected from $139/bbl to $112/bbl after UAE hinted at more supplies coming from OPEC. Meanwhile, the FPIs continued to sell nearly Rs.28,000 crore of equities in the previous week, taking their total sell tally to $27 billion since the start of October 2021.

· It will be a macro data heavy week after the tepid IIP number last week. CPI inflation is expected to taper lower to 5.93% while WPI inflation is likely to taper lower to 12.01% despite higher fuel prices but also higher base effect. Trade deficit data is likely to show widening in the coming week on the back of higher gold and oil imports.

· Markets likely to turn volatile in the week on the back of a truncated week due to Holi. Traders may rush to cover positions ahead of long weekend. Meanwhile, government revenue cues will come from final call on LIC IPO and NLMP game plan. With Nifty closing at the upper end of last week range, VIX at 25 will support stable markets.

· Key US data points focus on core PPI, Redbook, API Inventory, retail sales, FOMC statement, housing starts, jobless claims, IIP. For rest of the world, the major data points to focus on include; EU IIP, CPI, Trade; Japan trade balance, IIP, capacity utilization; China IIP, retail sales, house prices