What is the major trading and investment cues for the market for the week commencing on 07 October 2019?
Answer
Answer
The previous week was packed with the monetary policy and international data flows. Here is what will be critical for the coming week in terms of the data cues.
· The big overhang from the previous week will be the credit policy. While the 25 bps rate cut was not exactly a major stumbling block for the market, the real worry was the decision by the RBI to downgrade its full year growth target from 6.9% to 6.1%. Markets are worried because that would mean a serious downgrade in the quarterly earnings and that may not be too conducive for valuations.
· The real estate stocks will continue to be in focus and the impact on the banks and NBFCs will be a key issue this week. The impact of recent cases like PMC Bank, HDIL, Altico as well as NBFCs like DHFL and IL&FS will be a major overhang on the markets. The HDIL fraud will be the key factor determining the markets.
· GST numbers were a major disappointment falling to a multi month low of Rs.91,000 crore. The government has set ambitious targets for GST collections for the full year and with just 6 months left, there is likely to be a huge gap to be bridged on this front. That is something to be watched out for.
· The earnings season kicks off this season and the weak earnings of last time, the overall slowdown and the RBI downgrade of GDP will weigh on the markets. Key IT companies as well as others like D-Mart are expected to announce numbers this week. Apart from Infosys and TCS, IndusInd Bank will also announce its results and that could be a key trigger for the banking stocks.
· While TCS is expected to maintain steady numbers, Infosys is expected to live up to the higher guidance given last time. Also, Infosys is expected to revise its guidance marginally higher for the next one year. This is likely to be positive for sentiments and IT is already becoming the defensive favourite of the markets.
· All eyes will be focused on the US China trade talks as they meet over the week end. This will be a precursor to the direct meeting between Trump and Xi. However, the trade talks last time around had ended on a sour note after China opted to walk out of the talks half way. World markets will be looking at some positive cues from the trade talks to create a conducive growth atmosphere.
· FII flows turned negative once again in the previous week. They had shown some buying interest in the week before that as response to the tax cuts announced. That appears to have reversed and is not great news for the markets.
· On the macro front, the all important August IIP data will be announced on Friday and that will be critical after the weak GDP numbers projected by the RBI in its policy meeting. Apart from the GDP, the IIP is also likely to be impacted by the August core sector numbers that came in negative zone. Additionally, the forex reserves data will also be released this week and that is likely to be an important data point to gauge if the RBI is still intervening or not.
· There are some important US based data like the FOMC minutes, initial jobless claims and inflation numbers that will be coming. They will assume importance after the tepid manufacturing and services reported by the US last week.
· China numbers on the services and the composite PMI will be to metals demand and most metal stocks will be awaiting that data point. Also, it is expected that China could hasten the stimulus package.
· Lastly, Brexit will b e an important even to watch out for. Johnson has already made a final proposal to EU and is still insistent on October 31st deadline. Recent voter polls show Boris Johnson having a clear edge if elections were to be called today. That would give an edge to Johnson and help push BREXIT faster.