What is your stock market view for the 15th of March, Tuesday? Can the rally continue in Nifty and Sensex after 5 days?

You are right that Monday actually marked the 5th straight day of gains as oil prices fell by another $4/bbl on hopes of Ukraine peace talks. Oil has now fallen from a peak of $139/bbl to $109/bbl in a span of less than a week. The Nifty closed with gains of 241 points while the Sensex closed with gains of over 900 points on Monday.

It is not just the Nifty gain, but even the breadth of the market was largely supportive. The advance decline ratio or the A/D ratio stayed positive at 37:13 but the VIX went up slightly to 25.68 levels, indicating caution ahead of the Fed meet outcome. On the downside, CPI inflation and WPI inflation coming in higher than expected for Feb-22.

FPIs net sold a subdued Rs.177 crore while domestic funds bought stocks worth Rs.1,099 crore on Monday. Since Apr-21, FPIs sold nearly $36 billion. On Monday, Dow was flat while the sharp fall in NASDAQ continued. Overall European markets ended with gains while in early trades on Tuesday, the SGX Nifty is more than 70 basis points lower.

In the last 5 days of gains in the Nifty, nearly Rs.15,00,000 crore of wealth has been created in markets. The inflation number on CPI and WPI front are higher than expected. The concern is that things could get worse if government starts to hike petrol and diesel prices. Of course, the US Fed action is the next big trigger to watch out for in the week.