What is your view for the stock market on 09 March, Tuesday? Which way do you see the markets moving decisively, especially the Nifty and Sensex?

It was a strong start but a rather tepid and disappointing end to trading on 08 March, the first day of the trading week. On Monday, despite starting with a gap up and holding above 15,000 for a better part of the day, Nifty eventually closed below the psychological mark. The gains were just 18 points on the Nifty with most intraday gains evaporating by the end.

The action was on the crude related stocks or the crude beneficiaries as I call it. Crude gained above $70/bbl during the day, for the first time in a year, after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations. Consequently, stocks like ONGC and GAIL gained over 7%. In addition, Oil India and IOC also gained on hopes of better inventory translation and higher GRMs.

Foreign portfolio investors or FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.1495 crore on 08 March while DFIs bought Rs.484 crore, which is rather surprising. With this latest bout of selling by FPIs, the total selling in equity in March has crossed Rs.2000 crore and the net selling in equity and debt combined for March till date has crossed Rs.7,000 crore.

It was a day of sharp contrasts in global markets; in fact, within the US markets itself. The Dow gained 1% while the tech-laden NASADAQ lost nearly 2.5%. Techs remained under pressure after a very sharp rally in tech stocks. However, European markets were up 2-3%. SGX Nifty is up nearly 45 bps in early trades but a lot would depend on Asian cues.

It is a tough call on the direction of the market from here. But the first indication you must look at is the VIX and this VIX needs to taper to closer to the 20 levels if upsides in the Nifty have to sustain. Till the time the VIX does not taper, any upsides will be met with selling pressure at higher levels, as is the situation today.