With GDP down 7.5% in the Sep-20 quarter, is India officially in recession?

For the Sep-20 quarter India’s economy contracted 7.5% but that must be seen in the context of the fact that GDP had contracted by 23.9% in Jun-20 quarter. From that perspective it is an improvement. Technically, it is a recession because it is two quarters of negative growth in GDP.

The bounce was driven by a rebound in manufacturing and electricity generation even as farm output sustained at 3.4% like last quarter. However, financial services and public utility services saw worsening of contraction as the lag effect is likely to continue for more time.

Manufacturing sector recovered to pre-COVID levels as the growth moved from -39.3% to +0.6% in the second quarter. Agri was supported by a solid Kharif sowing season and better rural incomes in the quarter.